tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57230067976044321262024-02-19T00:41:29.420-08:00LatAm-ThreadsLatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-67355760410787464802017-06-07T08:12:00.000-07:002017-06-16T03:24:37.693-07:00How the FARC Missed Its Initial Goals - a Sad Story<br>
These days - May 27th 2017 - the world's oldest guerrilla group FARC-EP was 'celebrating' its 53rd anniversary. While anyone else would think that a sober memorial of the FARC's founding in 1964 would be more appropriate, las FARC still see themselves as victors and bringers of peace and social justice in Colombia, something that should be celebrated. Let's look into that and see how true that is.<br>
<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2016/10/how-farc-missed-its-initial-goals-sad.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-12640605333893139872016-10-13T08:12:00.000-07:002016-10-26T08:09:48.400-07:00How the Colombian Electorate Was Deceived in the October 2nd 2016 Plebiscite About the Peace AccordsA rather amazing and disappointing story about Colombian politics. After Greece 2015, Netherlands 2016, Bahamas 2016, Hungary 2016, Great Britain 2016, once more a referendum got hi-jacked by opportunists, manipulators, populists and politicians with the help of national main stream media and social media as accomplices. Lack of unbiased education on the peace accords by the Colombian authorities, electoral fraud, inability to vote for large voter groups and the probable unconstitutionality of the plebiscite, seem all to have contributed to the deception of the Colombian people. <i>Read More...</i><br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2016/10/how-colombian-electorate-was-deceived.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-72930563197587813642015-06-10T09:26:00.001-07:002015-09-03T03:16:24.846-07:00Improvised Anti Personnel Mines in ColombiaOn March 7, 2015 the Colombian government and the FARC-EP reached an <a href="http://farc-epeace.org/index.php/communiques/communiques-peace-delegation/item/686-joint-communique-52-humanitarian-agreement.html" target="_blank">agreement</a> to start a demining pilot project in the town El Orejón, Antioquia. Colombia is a nation severely affected by landmines. In 2006 the number of victims was as high as 1,227 of which 237 were reported dead. The accumulated number of victims since 1990 reached the number of 10,812 at the end of 2014. More than 10,000 potentially Suspect Hazardous Areas (SHAs) exist in Colombia. According to government statistics, there are more than 3.6 million
registered Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Colombia, and landmine
contamination is a contributory factor preventing these people from
returning to their land. AP mines have been laid by all Non States Armed Groups (NSAGs) in Colombia as well as the State's Security Forces. Never the less there is also good news. The yearly number of victims is declining fast!<br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2015/06/improvised-anti-personnel-mines-in.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-8849127495387832452015-01-04T09:07:00.000-08:002015-01-05T05:13:20.183-08:00The Threats to the Colombian Peace Process<span class="short_text" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="hps">The Havana peace process that officially started on November 19th 2012, </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="hps">has lasted</span> <span class="hps">more than two years already and just 3 of the 6 <a href="http://farc-epeace.org/index.php/havana-general-agreement.html" target="_blank">agenda points</a> have been agreed upon. </span></span>The
good thing is that the process is still making progress and the closer
it gets to the finish line, the less chance there is that it will be
aborted.<span class="short_text" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="hps"> </span></span><span class="short_text" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="hps">The peace process seems to be the germ of a broad public debate of how to redesign the Colombian state and society.</span></span><br>
<br>
<span class="short_text" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="hps">But unlike</span> <span class="hps">what</span> <span class="hps">you'd
expect, there are serious threats and counter-forces that are
undermining the peace process. Lots of groups seem not to favor peace in
Colombia. Former president and now senator Álvaro Uribe Vélez seems to be the spearhead of those groups. Let's look at those threats here.</span></span><br>
<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-threats-to-colombian-peace-process.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-70290110059209618692014-11-18T09:31:00.001-08:002014-11-19T04:12:32.766-08:00Venezuela and the Plummeting Oil Price<br>
Venezuela depends on oil sales for over 95% of its export earnings, with
the hard currency being used to pay for imports, social programs,
external debt and arbitration settlements. As a result the decrease in
the price of oil this year has been viewed with concern. Brent crude has
fallen from a previously stable US $105 in July down to $78 currently.<br>
<br>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2ChcWJ1rlm8hAoWQ0Ljm9uYQpwPmhVnVjyaqLoNDkvKyKeRjdRlQK0pv4kh_XGK4grgkEooLlR-mkU_6RbM_qriMjhBaCKoGE6g8EKU308oX1uynfjqnYTZXkw-DgRNdVfFAzDqacQOY/s1600/Brent+Crude+Oil+Price+2014.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2ChcWJ1rlm8hAoWQ0Ljm9uYQpwPmhVnVjyaqLoNDkvKyKeRjdRlQK0pv4kh_XGK4grgkEooLlR-mkU_6RbM_qriMjhBaCKoGE6g8EKU308oX1uynfjqnYTZXkw-DgRNdVfFAzDqacQOY/s1600/Brent+Crude+Oil+Price+2014.PNG" height="216" width="400"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Brent Crude Oil Price in USD/barrel from Nov 2013 - Nov 2014</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br>
<br>
Lower oil prices are an additional strain on Venezuela’s ailing economy. But $75-80 oil won’t send the country into default...yet, but the D-word is being whispered by some analysts.<br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2014/11/venezuela-and-plummeting-oil-price.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-34074040917938416142014-10-22T07:55:00.000-07:002014-10-22T08:13:11.277-07:00Cheap Bananas from EcuadorBananas are the most consumed tropical fruit in the western world. They are very easy to peel and are very comfortable to eat. No dirty hands. Thanks to refrigerated cargo ships (aka reefers) and refrigerated shipping containers, bananas can be shipped around the world without spoilage. Bananas can be cooled and shipped, when harvested green. Refrigeration slows the ripening process. The ripening is usually done in warehouses at the export destination point with ethylene gas. Bananas are cheap and everybody eats them. It's an ideal product to attract shoppers into supermarkets and that is exactly what is happening nowadays in North America and Western Europe. Banana turnover in western supermarkets could be as much as one percent of the overall turnover, which is considered as an awful lot. It seems there is a banana-price-race-to-the-bottom going on in many western countries. Unfortunately with bad side effects. <br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2014/10/cheap-bananas-from-ecuador.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-19601156650022123642014-08-14T09:59:00.001-07:002014-08-14T16:56:47.467-07:00Child Migrants from Central America<h2>
</h2>
<br>
The White House released a <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/06/20/fact-sheet-unaccompanied-children-central-america" target="_blank">factsheet</a> in June about the rapidly growing numbers of children from Central America unaccompanied by a parent and that are crossing the Mexico-U.S. border. The Administration remains greatly concerned by this rise and mentions that these children are vulnerable, and many become victims
of violent crime or sexual abuse along the dangerous journey.<br>
<br>
There has been a more than 120 per cent surge in the numbers of Honduran
children picked up on the US border compared with 2013. Child migrants
from El Salvador have increased more than 100 per cent and from
Guatemala by nearly 60 per cent. <br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2014/08/child-migrants-from-central-america.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-46634731236000326782014-06-13T09:17:00.001-07:002014-06-19T07:05:38.007-07:00US PMCs in Latin America<h4>
</h4>
Mercenaries are not at all a new phenomena in Latin America. Already in the 16th century Latin America was invaded with mercenaries. The Spanish and Portuguese <a href="http://latinamericanhistory.about.com/od/theconquistadors/tp/08conquistadors.htm" target="_blank">Conquistadors</a> were a special breed of men: brutal, ruthless adventurers who would stop at nothing to carve out wealth and fame for themselves and an empire for Spain. In most cases, the conquistadors were not soldiers from the national armies of these invading countries, but mercenaries who set out on these conquests to build their fortunes with the spoils of war. They had to buy their armor, sword, and horses. However, in some cases the national military of a country would
descend upon a native country and wage war with them and then claim the
land as theirs. The most famous example of this is Hernan Cortes and his
army, which was funded by the nation of Spain in their quest to bring
the Aztecs down. Men like Hernán Cortés and Francisco Pizarro left their bloody mark on the New World. <br>
<br>
<h4>
US Private Military Companies (PMCs)</h4>
<br>
A US PMC is a company that is contracted to deliver military services to the Ministry of Defense (Pentagon) or in some cases the Ministry of State. In essence we're talking about mercenaries, while there can be discussion about the exact definition. The contractors are mostly former well-trained US militaries. They could be advisers, trainers, pilots, service personnel, security guards, reconnaissance or intelligence workers and so on. <br>
<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2014/06/us-pmcs-in-latin-america.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-40664225376605544072013-11-14T03:51:00.001-08:002015-01-05T05:06:28.804-08:00Álvaro Uribe Vélez' MissionColombia's ex-president (2002-2010) Álvaro Uribe Vélez has been described as the worst ex-president ever, because he is continuously criticizing his successor President Juan Manuel Santos and the FARC-peace-process by <a href="https://twitter.com/AlvaroUribeVel" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/AlvaroUribeVel" target="_blank">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://primerocolombia.com/" target="_blank">his website</a>, his <a href="http://www.youtube.com/user/AlvaroUribeOficial?feature=mhee" target="_blank">Youtube channel</a> and by means of numerous interviews and lectures - in Colombia and abroad - about his political views and his book. <a href="https://twitter.com/AlvaroUribeVel" target="_blank">His Twitter account</a> has 2.5 million followers as per November 2013, grew 1 million followers the last 12 months and this number is still growing. In October 2012 he admitted in an <a href="http://www.video.mg/view/Jorge-Ramos-Asks-Colombia%27s-Ex-President-About-The-Peace-Talks-Between-Government-And-Guerilla?sv=81330" target="_blank">interview with Jorge Ramos</a> that he is not writing his 20 tweets/day himself, so a PR-assistant is probably taking care of this. Uribe can't be president again, so what is his mission and goal?<br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2013/11/alvaro-uribe-velez-mission.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-39827592014594463602013-09-16T09:51:00.000-07:002013-10-10T10:22:36.746-07:00Evo Moráles and Bolivia's Lithium Deposits<h3>
The Deposit</h3>
<br>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0WAbpZpK6XnOY9EMqwPWgWE8ItiDQ31_3ExiqmOrl-v1vPguZm0FJyL-bPdwET9dYSQhmVdQ8TTrPeI0BB7gMQPWpZhrVo9OJmSzHlfoI_IlVE8roqOrXz9CIBebZcR4tbXPy93XPV0w/s1600/640px-Salar_Uyuni_au01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0WAbpZpK6XnOY9EMqwPWgWE8ItiDQ31_3ExiqmOrl-v1vPguZm0FJyL-bPdwET9dYSQhmVdQ8TTrPeI0BB7gMQPWpZhrVo9OJmSzHlfoI_IlVE8roqOrXz9CIBebZcR4tbXPy93XPV0w/s1600/640px-Salar_Uyuni_au01.jpg" height="300" width="400"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia<br>
Courtesy of Anouchka Unel</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br>
Bolivia's <i><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salar_de_Uyuni" target="_blank">Salar de Uyuni</a></i>, is the world's largest salt flat at 10,582 square kilometers. It's part of Bolivia's Altoplano at an altitude of 3,656m. The Salar was formed as a result of transformations between several prehistoric lakes. It is covered with a solid salt crust varying in thickness between tens of centimeters and a few meters.The brine below the salt crust is a saturated solution of Sodium Chloride, Potassium Chloride, Lithium Chloride, Magnesium Chloride and Borax in water. Of those, Lithium is most valuable as it is a vital component of many electric rechargeable batteries. With estimated 9,000,000 tonnes, Bolivia holds about <span style="background-color: white;">50% </span>of the world's Lithium reserves according to <a href="http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1371/pdf/circ1371_508.pdf" target="_blank">USGS</a>. Salar de Uyuni is estimated to contain 10 billion tonnes of salts. Lithium is concentrated in the brine under the salt crust at a relatively high concentration of about 0.3%.<br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2013/09/evo-morales-and-bolivias-lithium.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-59321839914587403882013-06-16T17:53:00.001-07:002013-09-15T16:43:52.121-07:00The Colombian Llanos Orientales (Eastern Plains) as Part of the FARC Peace Agreement (?)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
The Llanos Orientales, as large as 16-17 million ha and roughly about one quarter of Colombia's territory, are seen by some as a possible solution for the large amounts of landless small farmers (<i>campesinos</i>) who became IDPs during Colombia's domestic conflict. Possibly this solution is part of the (preliminary) Agrarian Reform Agreement that was recently reached as a first result of the FARC peace negotiations that are still continuing in Havana, Cuba. The Llanos Orientales, including the states (departmentos) of Arauca, Casanare, Meta and Vichada, is still - for the greater part - unused land, existing of savannas with plenty of rainfall and sunshine and an oxisol/ultisol soil type. It has been demonstrated that the physical conditions of the soil are usually best under permanent grassland (or forest). When the soil is cultivated, these conditions usually deteriorate at a rate dependent of climate, soil texture and bad management. Significant negative effects have been found of continued cropping on the physical properties of soils in the Llanos.<br>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpjLxtU8kLAX4MNgMmyig75SYWDVXpSn0whD2mZE6h41D8t321n41mu82Is4B2mg51T8HFMpzAWWDu36zKN4YyphmfaB6HVPTUuQJVKV0G2hJrRA3fkZgG_-JNcpuqtL_aK3c23Gc9t2o/s1600/Municipios_Llanos_Orientales.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpjLxtU8kLAX4MNgMmyig75SYWDVXpSn0whD2mZE6h41D8t321n41mu82Is4B2mg51T8HFMpzAWWDu36zKN4YyphmfaB6HVPTUuQJVKV0G2hJrRA3fkZgG_-JNcpuqtL_aK3c23Gc9t2o/s1600/Municipios_Llanos_Orientales.jpg" height="400" width="355"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Llanos Orientales de Colombia</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-colombian-llanos-orientiales.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-73421152053916734912013-06-15T17:16:00.000-07:002013-06-18T12:59:42.656-07:00The (Preliminary) Agrarian Reform Agreement of the FARC Peace TalksIt took the FARC and the Colombian government more than 6 months to reach an agreement on the 1st of 6 items of the <a href="http://colombiareports.com/agreement-colombia-government-and-rebel-group-farc/" target="_blank">Peace Process Agenda</a>: <i>Agrarian Reform</i>. It's still a preliminary agreement, because of the condition "that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" and because the final agreement<span itemprop="articleBody"> will be submitted to <a href="http://colombiareports.com/peace-agreements-will-remain-confidential-until-a-final-pact-is-agreed-chief-govt-negotiator/" target="_blank">a referendum of the Colombian people</a>.</span> The full text of the Agrarian Reform agreement was not disclosed so few details could be renegotiated later in the peace talks if necessary. However, a <a href="http://farc-ep.co/?p=2356" target="_blank">joint communique</a> was issued that discloses the headlines of the preliminary agreement. Surprisingly a few days later Santos revealed <a href="http://colombiareports.com/colombia-santos-reveals-part-of-undisclosed-agrarian-deal-with-farc/" target="_blank">some more details</a> on Radio Caracol. It's an important milestone. Agrarian reform was on the FARC's wishlist since their very existence. For the Colombian government it is an important issue as well, because land conflicts in Colombia are and have been the main source of violence. The communique looks very promising...on paper. It will be a real challenge to realize and enforce it. <br>
<br>
<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-preliminary-agrarian-reform.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-48963337359751165582013-05-16T08:27:00.001-07:002013-05-20T15:04:35.184-07:00Causes and Types of Domestic Land Conflicts in Latin America<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
Many Latin American countries today are still suffering from domestic land conflicts, often resulting in violent actions and killings. These land conflicts may be limited to small parts of a country, effect whole regions or even the whole country. Land conflicts in Latin America have always existed since the Spanish and Portuguese conquest. To understand the root of these still existing land conflicts, you have to research history. I will try to do that in this blogpost. Resolving the conflicts will often have serious negative consequences, but not resolving the problem will have serious negative consequences too.<br>
<br>
<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2013/05/causes-and-types-of-domestic-land.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-76192737030519673672013-05-01T10:11:00.002-07:002013-05-16T15:40:23.672-07:00The Still Growing Violence and Crime in VenezuelaWith 99.67% of the <a href="http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_presidencial_2013/r/1/reg_000000.html" target="_blank">votes being counted</a> on April 14th, it looks like Nicolás Maduro has beaten Henrique Capriles with 1.49% of the votes (50.61% vs 49.12%) in the presidential elections of April 14th 2013. The gap is 224,739 votes, which is only 112,370 voters that are making the difference. Capriles has called for a full audit of the election results, but it looks like he isn't going to get it. The National Electoral Council (CNE) said it would be legally impossible to carry out. What is agreed upon now is a partial examination of 56% of the votes cast, which is expected to take until June, but what exactly is examined is stil not agreed upon. The remaining 44% had been checked immediately after the election. On April 30 even <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-22362760" target="_blank">fistfights</a> have broken out in Venezuela's parliament over the recent disputed presidential election. It is obvious that Maduro and his PSUV campaign team used about the same <a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-pre-election-fraud-of-2012.html" target="_blank">pre-election fraud tactics</a> that were applied during the campaign of the 7 October 2012 presidential elections, that Chávez won. And maybe some real election fraud as well, according to Capriles. Maduro has to combat serious corruption crime and violence, but also <a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2013/02/venezuela-under-hugo-chavez.html" target="_blank">a real economy that is ever more dependent of future oil sales</a>. This seems like an impossible challenge for someone who has been Venezuela's foreign minister for 6 years and has very little experience in dealing with interior matters. It is very likely that the opposition will petition for a recall referendum in April 2016, after half of Maduro's term has elapsed. However, this blogpost is dealing about the serious violence and crime rates in Venezuela, its causes and Maduro's plans to combat this during his first term.<br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-still-growing-violence-and-crime-in.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-90489005953919606982013-03-27T16:39:00.000-07:002013-03-27T18:49:48.664-07:00Emerging Paramilitary Groups in MexicoDespite the efforts of former presidents Vicente Fox and Felipe Caldéron the drug cartel war and <a href="http://justiceinmexico.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/130206-dvm-2013-final.pdf" target="_blank">related violence in Mexico</a> still continues today. More than 1.6 million Mexicans left their homes because of drug violence from 2006 to 2011, according to a <a href="http://www.parametria.com.mx/DetalleEstudio.php?E=4288" target="_blank">May 2011 survey</a> of the Mexico City polling firm Parametría. They might consider themselves lucky, because they are not among the 70,000 Mexicans slain in the drug war, or not between the <a href="http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/mexico0213webwcover.pdf" target="_blank">25,000 enforced disappeared</a> according to a leaked list of the Ministry of Interior. Civilians seem to be fed up with threats, kidnappings, robberies, extortion and the failing anti-violence policies for a long time. The new arising (unlawful) Mexican self-defense vigilantes are the latest result of this desperate situation. There is growing concern about various paramilitary groups that are operating in Mexico. I will try to zoom in on those concerns here and will discuss the various paramilitary groups that are present in Mexico. <br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2013/03/emerging-paramilitary-groups-in-mexico.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-47575312955059619772013-02-19T16:48:00.000-08:002013-05-15T13:09:41.012-07:00Venezuela Under Hugo ChávezWhile on Feb 15 2013 - after two months... - the Venezuelan government released new pictures of Hugo Chávez (Why not a video??) including a <a href="http://www.minci.gob.ve/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/boletin-radial-15-02-2013-comunicado-sobre-la-salud-del-comandante-chavez-.mp3" target="_blank">press release about his medical condition</a> in an attempt to invalidate <a href="http://www.abc.es/internacional/20130209/abci-chavez-habra-recuperacion-enfermedad-201302090851.html" target="_blank">Spanish ABC's claims</a>, <a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-end-of-chavez-era.html#more" target="_blank">things</a>
are still <i>not</i> looking good for Hugo Chávez. Despite that <a href="http://world.time.com/2013/02/18/president-chavez-returns-to-venezuela-from-cuba/" target="_blank">he secretly returned to Venezuela</a> yesterday (February 18th 2013) and kept completely shielded from the outside world. Because of the seriousness of his disease many Venezuelans are still
awaiting an official declaration that Hugo Chávez is unable to exercise
the functions of the presidency anymore and that therefore presidential elections will be held in the next 30
days. It looks like the government is postponing this moment of truth as
much as it can. Probably to find monies to finance Maduro's election campaign and to gain time to <i>prepare</i> the campaign. It is a good opportunity to look back at the Chávez era. As a
career military officer and a political activist (MBR-200) he led an
unsuccessful coup against the Pérez government in 1992 for which he was
sentenced for two years imprisonment. Never the less Chávez came legally
to power as president on February 2 1999 and was elected as president
three more times. He survived a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt#U.S._involvement" target="_blank">(US supported) coup attempt</a> in April 2002 and also a recall referendum in 2004 with the help of a <a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-pre-election-fraud-of-2012.html" target="_blank">little election fraud</a>. <br>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/Reuters/2013-02-15T155207Z_167177307_GM1E92F1U6F01_RTRMADP_3_VENEZUELA-CHAVEZ-IMAGES.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/Reuters/2013-02-15T155207Z_167177307_GM1E92F1U6F01_RTRMADP_3_VENEZUELA-CHAVEZ-IMAGES.JPG" height="250" width="400"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Hugo Chávez with his daughters Maria Gabriela (l) and <br>
Rosa Virginia (r)
and reading a Cuban Granma newspaper<br>
of thursday Feb 14, 2013.
Photo released Friday, Feb. 15, 2013<br>
by <a href="http://www.minci.gob.ve/2013/02/audio-comunicado-sobre-recuperacion-del-presidente-chavez/" target="_blank">Venezuelan Miraflores Presidential Press Office </a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2013/02/venezuela-under-hugo-chavez.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-73890280365059229352013-02-12T16:54:00.000-08:002013-07-01T09:54:30.083-07:00The End Of The Chávez Era?<br>
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President Chávez hasn't been seen or spoken publicly since that sudden departure to Havana on Dec. 10 2012. Former Vice President Elías Jaua recently said the president has overcome complications including a severe respiratory infection following his Dec. 11 surgery for recurrent cancer in "his pelvic region". The silence for over two months now of a president who used to speak on television almost every day, has led many Venezuelans to wonder why he is unable to say at least a few words to the country by phone. No pictures or even letters or <a href="https://twitter.com/chavezcandanga" target="_blank">tweets</a> from his hand have been published either. One has to fear that Chávez' condition is far worse than everyone expected. <br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-end-of-chavez-era.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-43753032902541678362013-01-22T17:43:00.001-08:002013-03-27T17:09:53.880-07:00US Firearms Trafficking to MexicoAfter the Newtown, CT school shooting December 14th 2012, discussions about gun control blaze again the US. The sale of handguns and semi-automatic rifles and assault weapons immediately <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/18/gun-sales-surge-newtown-crackdown" target="_blank">sky rocketed</a> as it usually does after every mass killing. The US has already many more weapons per person than any other country in the world. For West European, Latin American and Asian countries with strict gun control this is an amazing phenomena and hard to understand. In their experience more guns simply means more killings! Unfortunately it is not very likely that <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_laws_in_the_United_States_by_state" target="_blank">US federal or state laws</a> regarding gun control are going to change very much in the near future, despite Obama's efforts.<br>
One has to fear that ever more guns will be sold to US citizens and that therefore more new and used guns will be trafficked into Latin America.<br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2013/01/us-firearms-trafficking-to-mexico.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-83922311366815745442012-12-12T17:37:00.000-08:002013-06-11T14:37:30.339-07:00What Will Happen in Colombia after Peace with Las FARC?<br>
Since November peace negotiations between President Santos' administration and the FARC have begun in Cuba, much to the regret of hardliner and former president Álvaro Uribe Velez and the Uribistas. Thanks to the Norwegian government who has made considerable efforts in silent diplomacy to bring the two parties to the negotiation table, define the agenda and the road-map. Meanwhile in Colombia, Uribe continues to criticize the peace process, stating that you don't negotiate with terrorists and that the current administration shows more interest in dialogue with "terrorism" than National <span class="GRcorrect" grcontextid="security:0" grmarkguid="16c4bd94-4c0b-4684-b1ce-349121402e23" gruiphraseguid="c9e703a7-5767-498e-888a-913ffb1a4557">s<span class="GRcorrect" grcontextid="security:0" grmarkguid="222a5e84-c25b-42ea-85bd-340c56682132" gruiphraseguid="02f26d90-d46c-47af-b632-a9ab8ce659f8">ecurity</span></span><span class="GRcorrect" grcontextid="security:0" grmarkguid="222a5e84-c25b-42ea-85bd-340c56682132" gruiphraseguid="02f26d90-d46c-47af-b632-a9ab8ce659f8"></span>. After a period of ignoring Uribe, Juan Manuel Santos has started a <a href="http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/news/26726-santos-says-uribe-sought-peace-talks-with-farc.html" target="_blank">first offense</a> to silence Uribe and his followers by stating Uribe sought peace talks with the FARC himself for five years during his two terms.<br>
What would be the chance for the peace process to succeed? What are the consequences of peace? Will there be an all-encompassing peace in Colombia when the FARC will give up its arms? What are the consequences of failure? Interesting questions...<br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2012/12/what-will-happen-in-colombia-after.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-29604359274363734532012-11-29T16:20:00.001-08:002015-01-24T04:33:16.200-08:00The Domestic Colombian Armed Conflict Explained In Diagrams<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Now peace negotiations between the FARC and the Colombian Government has begun in Havana, the mainstream media is writing a lot about the Colombian conflict. You can read many background articles and analyses on the conflict, however few will give you an accurate and complete overview. The conflict has become very complicated in the 64 years of its existence. 64 years, because I would like to add the 10 years of "La Violencia" (1948-1958). Right after La Violencia, the state began to orchestrate hostilities against socialists. During La Violencia approx. 250,000 people lost their lives and another 250,000 lost their lives in the years after. In those 64 years more actors and forces entered the conflict arena, making the conflict more complicated and therefore ever more difficult to resolve. For a better understanding, I will try here to visualize through diagrams the most important actors and forces of the conflict. Forces and actors have varied in time and strength of course. </div>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-domestic-colombian-armed-conflict.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-12755072821076203322012-09-30T15:45:00.000-07:002013-02-13T16:24:31.199-08:00The Pre-Election Fraud of the 2012 Venezuelan Presidential Elections <br>
If you you're in power and sure you have the majority of votes in your country, there is no need to rig elections. If you still do, your attempts could only backfire (Unless of course when you're not satisfied with simply the majority and you need a 2/3 majority in congress to be able to rewrite the constitution, as has happened in <a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2011/11/something-smelly-in-nicaraguathe.html" target="_blank">the 2011 Nicaragua elections</a>). Hugo Chávez strengthened the <a href="http://venezuela-us.org/live/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/08-31-12-FS-Elections-2012-Long.pdf" target="_blank">electoral system</a> considerably by introducing voting machines, better laws and procedures. Never the less he still succeeded to rig the results of the intensively negotiated <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_recall_referendum,_2004" target="_blank">2004 recall referendum</a>. At the time the <a href="http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=cdee124b11d6baacda6c3e29b12e23dc&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fdevilsexcrement.com%2Fcategory%2Frr-models%2F&v=1&libid=1348531369829&out=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.e-publications.org%2Fims%2Fsubmission%2Findex.php%2FSTS%2Fuser%2FsubmissionFile%2F1204%3Fconfirm%3Dcb070d76&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fdevilsexcrement.com%2F2012%2F09%2F21%2Fjimmy-carter-get-lost-stop-meddling-in-venezuela%2F&title=RR%20Models%20%C2%AB%20The%20Devil%27s%20Excrement&txt=The%20first%20paper%20accepted&jsonp=vglnk_jsonp_13485834148055" target="_blank">exit polls</a> already showed that there was a massive electoral fraud going on. Strong statistical proof according to two different methods (<a href="http://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.3290.pdf" target="_blank">Benford's Law</a> and <a href="http://vcrisis.com/Venezuela%20Presidential%20Referendum%20-%20Statistical%20Analysis%20May-2006.pdf" target="_blank">Cluster Analysis</a>) came available years later, when the National Electoral Council (CNE), foreign observers and OAS countries had already accepted the results.<br>
Chávez rigged the 2010 Venezuelan parliamentary elections by applying pre-election fraud referred to as gerrymandering as you can read below. Now facing a close finish with Henrique Capriles in the 2012 presidential elections, Chávez' rigging needs to be even more sophisticated than in 2004 and 2010. Check out the rest of this blogpost to find out about these methods.<br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-pre-election-fraud-of-2012.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-19977608991423505032012-08-18T06:28:00.000-07:002013-06-28T15:01:24.688-07:00BACRIMs, Colombia's "New" Nightmare<br>
Ever heard of <i>Águilas Negras, Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia, Banda Criminal de Urabá, Los Urabeños, Los Machos, Los Paisas, Renacer, Nueva Generación, Los Rastrojos, ERPAC, Cordillera, Cacique Pipintá, Grupo de Martín Llanos, Los Nevados or La oficina de Envigado</i>? They're Colombian BACRIMs. BACRIM, a term strategically coined by former president Uribe to be used instead of paramilitaries, stands for <i>Bandas Criminales Emergentes</i> that translates as Emerging Criminal Gangs. Some foreign NGO's use the acronym NIAG (New Illegal Armed Group) or call them neo-paramilitary groups. These "new" groups are mostly composed of former members of paramilitary groups (AUC) that were demobilized since 2006 and virtually granted amnesty by the administration of former President Álvaro Uribe for all their atrocities. Now BACRIMs are growing rapidly and spreading all over the country, because new sources of income were found. They're called "<i>el nuevo enemigo</i>" (the new enemy) in Colombia.<br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2012/08/bacrims-colombias-new-nightmare.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-43090014160936048492012-07-29T17:24:00.000-07:002012-10-01T09:39:50.439-07:00The Irregularities of the Mexico 2012 July 1st General Elections<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Mexico</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> July 1st 2012 elections had a turnout of 63.1%, which is slightly more than 2006 (59%) and about the same as in 2000. After the first count Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI-party) had 18,727,398 votes (39.10%) and won the elections. Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD-party) had 3,192,281 (6.67%) votes less: 15,535,117 (32.43%). López Obrador did not recognize Peña Nieto's victory, claiming there had been widespread irregularities. López accused the PRI of spending more than their allotted electoral budget, biased media coverage (Televisa) and vote buying. So how serious are these allegations and what's López Obrador's chance in this rearguard action about the presidency?</span><br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2012/07/the-irregularities-of-mexico-2012-july.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-69517208836312345782012-07-10T18:06:00.000-07:002012-07-29T15:43:50.022-07:00Uruguay's Groundbreaking Marijuana Proposal<br>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Uruguay (population 3.3 mil) is known by most people as one of the most economically developed countries in South America and where they produce and eat an awful lot of beef. Beef consumption in Uruguay is now 58.2 kilos/capita/year, while Argentina's consumption has dropped to 53.4 kilos/capita/year. But Uruguay is also the country which became in 2009 the first nation in the world to provide every school child with a free laptop and Internet. And you may be not aware of the fact that Uruguay was the first South American country to legalize same-sex and different-sex civil unions at a national level and to allow gay adoption. And now in June 2012 Uruguay surprised not only Latin America and the US but also the entire World, by announcing a proposal legalizing and monitoring marijuana sales and cultivation, making the government more or less the sole legal seller. Lots of media outlets covered this story, because it can have serious consequences for the US' War on Drugs (WOD). Unfortunately most of the details were left out. So let's dig into this a bit deeper...</span></span><br>
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<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2012/07/uruguays-groundbreaking-marijuana.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5723006797604432126.post-71999043830167456642012-07-02T17:01:00.000-07:002012-07-03T17:14:34.160-07:00Mexico, the 1994 Peso Crisis and its Democratization Process<br>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Now this year the G20 summit has been held June 18-19 2012 in Los Cabos, Baja California Sur, Mexico. Mexico can call itself the 14th economy in the world (2011 IMF GDP figures). While Argentina may be facing a second Peso crisis in the near future - as discussed <a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.nl/2012/06/sinking-argentine-peso.html#more" target="_blank">here</a> - Mexico recovered quite well from its 1994 peso crisis. Meanwhile The Economist did remove Argentina's official figures from their indicators page this year, because it said these figures became unreliable. And because of the expropriation of YPF, as discussed in this <a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.nl/2012/05/cristina-kirchners-populism-regarding.html#more" target="_blank">blogpost</a>, the WSJ asked itself: "Why not expel a thieving Buenos Aires from the G-20?". Mexico recovered economically quite well from its 1994 Peso crisis and is still doing well. It is worth to take a closer look to this Mexican story.</span></span><br>
<a href="http://latam-threads.blogspot.com/2012/07/mexico-1994-peso-crisis-and-its.html#more">Read more »</a>LatAm-Threadshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07522245506226099898noreply@blogger.com0