How the FARC Missed Its Initial Goals - a Sad Story

These days - May 27th 2017 - the world's oldest guerrilla group FARC-EP was 'celebrating' its 53rd anniversary. While anyone else would think that a sober memorial of the FARC's founding in 1964  would be more appropriate, las FARC still see themselves as victors and bringers of  peace and social justice in Colombia, something that should be celebrated. Let's look into that and see how true that is.

How the Colombian Electorate Was Deceived in the October 2nd 2016 Plebiscite About the Peace Accords

A rather amazing and disappointing story about Colombian politics. After Greece 2015, Netherlands 2016, Bahamas 2016, Hungary 2016,  Great Britain 2016, once more a referendum got hi-jacked by opportunists, manipulators, populists and politicians with the help of national main stream media and social media as accomplices. Lack of unbiased education on the peace accords by the Colombian authorities, electoral fraud, inability to vote for large voter groups and the probable unconstitutionality of the plebiscite, seem all to have contributed to the deception of the Colombian people. Read More...

Improvised Anti Personnel Mines in Colombia

On March 7, 2015 the Colombian government and the FARC-EP reached an agreement to start a demining pilot project in the town El Orejón, Antioquia. Colombia is a nation severely affected by landmines. In 2006 the number of victims was as high as 1,227 of which 237 were reported dead. The accumulated number of victims since 1990 reached the number of 10,812 at the end of 2014. More than 10,000 potentially Suspect Hazardous Areas (SHAs) exist in Colombia. According to government statistics, there are more than 3.6 million registered Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Colombia, and landmine contamination is a contributory factor preventing these people from returning to their land. AP mines have been laid by all Non States Armed Groups (NSAGs) in Colombia as well as the State's Security Forces. Never the less there is also good news. The yearly number of victims is declining fast!

The Threats to the Colombian Peace Process

The Havana peace process that officially started on November 19th 2012, has lasted more than two years already and just 3 of the 6 agenda points have been agreed upon. The good thing is that the process is still making progress and the closer it gets to the finish line, the less chance there is that it will be aborted. The peace process seems to be the germ of a broad public debate of how to redesign the Colombian state and society.

But unlike what you'd expect, there are serious threats and counter-forces that are undermining the peace process. Lots of groups seem not to favor peace in Colombia. Former president and now senator Álvaro Uribe Vélez seems to be the spearhead of those groups. Let's look at those threats here.

US PMCs in Latin America

 

Mercenaries are not at all a new phenomena in Latin America. Already in the 16th century Latin America was invaded with mercenaries. The Spanish and Portuguese Conquistadors were a special breed of men: brutal, ruthless adventurers who would stop at nothing to carve out wealth and fame for themselves and an empire for Spain. In most cases, the conquistadors were not soldiers from the national armies of these invading countries, but mercenaries who set out on these conquests to build their fortunes with the spoils of war. They had to buy their armor, sword, and horses. However, in some cases the national military of a country would descend upon a native country and wage war with them and then claim the land as theirs. The most famous example of this is Hernan Cortes and his army, which was funded by the nation of Spain in their quest to bring the Aztecs down. Men like Hernán Cortés and Francisco Pizarro left their bloody mark on the New World.

US Private Military Companies (PMCs)

A US PMC is a company that is contracted to deliver military services to the Ministry of Defense (Pentagon) or in some cases the Ministry of State. In essence we're talking about mercenaries, while there can be discussion about the exact definition. The contractors are mostly former well-trained US militaries. They could be advisers, trainers, pilots, service personnel, security guards, reconnaissance or intelligence workers and so on.

Álvaro Uribe Vélez' Mission

Colombia's ex-president (2002-2010) Álvaro Uribe Vélez has been described as the worst ex-president ever, because he is continuously criticizing his successor President Juan Manuel Santos and the FARC-peace-process by Twitter, Facebook,  his website, his Youtube channel and by means of numerous interviews and lectures - in Colombia and abroad - about his political views and his book. His Twitter account has 2.5 million followers as per November 2013, grew 1 million followers the last 12 months and this number is still growing. In October 2012 he admitted in an interview with Jorge Ramos that he is not writing his 20 tweets/day himself, so a PR-assistant is probably taking care of this. Uribe can't be president again, so what is his mission and goal?

The Colombian Llanos Orientales (Eastern Plains) as Part of the FARC Peace Agreement (?)

The Llanos Orientales, as large as 16-17 million ha and roughly about one quarter of Colombia's territory, are seen by some as a possible solution for the large amounts of landless small farmers (campesinos) who became IDPs during Colombia's domestic conflict. Possibly this solution is part of the (preliminary) Agrarian Reform Agreement that was recently reached as a first result of the FARC peace negotiations that are still continuing in Havana, Cuba. The Llanos Orientales, including the states (departmentos) of Arauca, Casanare, Meta and Vichada, is still - for the greater part - unused land, existing of savannas with plenty of rainfall and sunshine and an oxisol/ultisol soil type. It has been demonstrated that  the physical conditions of the soil are usually best under permanent grassland (or forest). When the soil is cultivated, these conditions usually deteriorate at a rate dependent of climate, soil texture and bad management. Significant negative effects have been found of continued cropping on the physical properties of soils in the Llanos.

Llanos Orientales de Colombia

The (Preliminary) Agrarian Reform Agreement of the FARC Peace Talks

It took the FARC and the Colombian government more than 6 months to reach an agreement on the 1st of 6 items of the Peace Process Agenda: Agrarian Reform. It's still a preliminary agreement, because of the condition "that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" and because the final agreement will be submitted to a referendum of the Colombian people. The full text of the Agrarian Reform  agreement was not disclosed so few details could be renegotiated later in the peace talks if necessary. However, a joint communique was issued that discloses the headlines of the preliminary agreement. Surprisingly a few days later Santos revealed some more details on Radio Caracol. It's an important milestone. Agrarian reform was on the FARC's wishlist since their very existence. For the Colombian government it is an important issue as well, because land conflicts in Colombia are and have been the main source of violence. The communique looks very promising...on paper. It will be a real challenge to realize and enforce it.

What Will Happen in Colombia after Peace with Las FARC?

Since November peace negotiations between President Santos' administration and the FARC have begun in Cuba, much to the regret of hardliner and former president Álvaro Uribe Velez and the Uribistas. Thanks to the Norwegian government who has made considerable efforts in silent diplomacy to bring the two parties to the negotiation table, define the agenda and the road-map. Meanwhile in Colombia, Uribe continues to criticize the peace process, stating that you don't negotiate with terrorists and that the current administration shows more interest in dialogue with "terrorism" than National security. After a period of ignoring Uribe, Juan Manuel Santos has started a first offense to silence Uribe and his followers by stating Uribe sought peace talks with the FARC himself for five years during his two terms.
What would be the chance for the peace process to succeed? What are the consequences of peace? Will there be an all-encompassing peace in Colombia when the FARC will give up its arms? What are the consequences of failure? Interesting questions...

The Domestic Colombian Armed Conflict Explained In Diagrams

Now peace negotiations between the FARC and the Colombian Government has begun in Havana, the mainstream media is writing a lot about the Colombian conflict. You can read many background articles and analyses on the conflict, however few will give you an accurate and complete overview. The conflict has become very complicated in the 64 years of its existence. 64 years, because I would like to add the 10 years of "La Violencia" (1948-1958). Right after La Violencia, the state began to orchestrate hostilities against socialists. During La Violencia approx. 250,000 people lost their lives and another 250,000 lost their lives in the years after. In those 64 years more actors and forces entered the conflict arena, making the conflict more complicated and therefore ever more difficult to resolve. For a better understanding, I will try here to visualize through diagrams the most important actors and forces of the conflict. Forces and actors have varied in time and strength of course.

BACRIMs, Colombia's "New" Nightmare

Ever heard of Águilas Negras, Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia, Banda Criminal de Urabá, Los Urabeños, Los Machos, Los Paisas, Renacer, Nueva Generación, Los Rastrojos, ERPAC, Cordillera, Cacique Pipintá, Grupo de Martín Llanos, Los Nevados or La oficina de Envigado? They're Colombian BACRIMs. BACRIM, a term strategically coined by former president Uribe to be used instead of paramilitaries, stands for Bandas Criminales Emergentes that translates as Emerging Criminal Gangs. Some foreign NGO's use the acronym NIAG (New Illegal Armed Group) or call them neo-paramilitary groups. These "new" groups are mostly composed of former members of  paramilitary groups (AUC) that were demobilized since 2006 and virtually granted amnesty by the administration of former President Álvaro Uribe for all their atrocities. Now BACRIMs are growing rapidly and spreading all over the country, because new sources of income were found. They're called "el nuevo enemigo" (the new enemy) in Colombia.

Oil Production in Venezuela and Colombia

While Venezuela's oil reserves are immense, its oil production is seriously decreasing for years now. On the other hand Colombia's oil production is increasing rapidly. This topic has been covered by most mainstream media, like Washingtonpost, LAtimes and many others. But what's the real in-depth story behind this remarkable phenomena?

The Balloon Effect

Coca eradication

The balloon effect - bringing to mind a balloon that swells in one spot when another is squeezed - seems to be the result in Latin America of the US' "Plan Colombia".